The Projectionists' Playbook: How the Right's War on Trans Women Reveals Its Own Sins
An analysis of the "groomer" panic, the psychology of scapegoating, and the staggering hypocrisy of those leading the charge.
Note from author: I plan to publish this paper in an academic journal after I do some more fine-tuning. I’m making it available here first for those of you who have the attention span to read lengthy research material.
My everlasting thanks to those from the LGBTQ community who read this and leave comments.
The Anatomy of a Modern Witch Hunt
A series of escalating moral panics defines the contemporary American political landscape, but none has been pursued with more coordinated vitriol and legislative fury than the war on transgender people. In the early 2020s, a rhetorical campaign closely associated with the rise of Trumpism and the broader far-right movement intensified its focus on transgender individuals, particularly trans women, casting them as a predatory threat to children, a menace to women’s sports, and an existential danger to the fabric of society.1 This is not a fringe phenomenon bubbling up from the dark corners of the internet; it is a centrally orchestrated strategy spearheaded by mainstream conservative figures. Governors like Ron DeSantis, senators like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and a constellation of media pundits, including Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro, have systematically weaponized anti-transgender sentiment, transforming it into a potent political tool. 2
The central accusation of this campaign is the libel of “grooming.” This term, deliberately co-opted from the field of anti-sexual violence, has been twisted into a slur to falsely and maliciously equate LGBTQ+ identity, and transgender existence in particular, with child sexual abuse.4 This allegation is, by every credible measure, a baseless conspiracy theory. Research has consistently shown that LGBTQ+ people are no more likely to abuse children sexually than their heterosexual and cisgender peers sexually; in fact, they are disproportionately the victims of such violence.4 Yet, the “groomer” narrative persists, not because it is true, but because it is useful. It serves as the engine of a manufactured moral panic, an exaggerated, widespread public fear over the perceived morality of a specific group, designed to mobilize a political base and justify a sweeping legislative assault on a vulnerable minority.6 For many Christian conservatives, this issue has become the new “biggest rallying call,” supplanting even decades-long battles over abortion and same-sex marriage.8
This report will argue that this campaign is more than just cynical political opportunism. It is a profound act of psychological projection, a defense mechanism in which a group attributes its own anxieties, transgressions, and predatory impulses onto a designated scapegoat. The relentless focus on transgender women as “perverts,” “rapists,” and “groomers” is not a reflection of the transgender community, but rather a distorted mirror held up to the accusers themselves. By analyzing the historical precedents of this rhetoric, the psychological drivers of prejudice, and the staggering hypocrisy of the figures leading the charge, a clear pattern emerges: the war on trans women is a playbook, one where the sins of the powerful are projected onto the powerless to maintain control, deflect accountability, and energize a political movement built on fear.
The strategic pivot from a broad anti-gay agenda to a laser-focused war on “transgender insanity” is a direct result of political calculation.9 After suffering decisive cultural and legal defeats on the issue of same-sex marriage, the political right required a new “folk devil” to keep its base energized. As Dartmouth professor Randall Balmer has noted, the evangelical base needs to be kept “riled up,” and when one issue fades, another must be found to take its place.8 Transgender people, representing a smaller, less understood, and therefore more easily demonized minority, became the ideal target. Republican strategists have been candid about this shift, openly stating that anti-trans messaging is a cornerstone of their election strategy. They believe it galvanizes their base more effectively than traditional wedge issues like crime or immigration, while successfully painting their political opponents as “ideological extremists” out of touch with mainstream values.10 When Donald Trump promises at rallies to cut federal funding for schools pushing “transgender insanity” or to “keep men out of women’s sports,” the roars of approval he receives are a testament to the strategy’s success.9 The current anti-trans moral panic is not, therefore, an organic moral outrage. It is a calculated and deliberate pivot to a target perceived as politically expedient, a vulnerable group sacrificed for the sake of electoral gain.
